AFEC Market Report 2025

Madrid, February 17, 2026. AFEC, the Association of Air Conditioning Equipment Manufacturers, today presented its market and sector report on air conditioning and HVAC for 2025 to the media and members of the public administration.

The meeting, held at the headquarters of the Spanish Association for Standardization (UNE), featured a presentation by Fernando Machicado, Coordinator of Organizations and Institutions, who welcomed attendees and spoke about the impact of standards on businesses and productivity, the market surveillance observatory (OVM), and the 2030 strategy.

AFEC was represented by its president, Francisco Perucho; the president of the air conditioning, heat pump and DHW production market committee and former president of AFEC, Luis Mena; and the general director, Marta San Román. Together, they reviewed AFEC's market report, which compiles aggregate data on heating, cooling and domestic hot water production equipment; air distribution and diffusion; ventilation; residential ventilation; and air handling units (AHUs).

The 2025 financial year confirms real growth in the HVAC market in Spain. This progress is based on various factors such as price, volume and a more professionalised mix, with different relative weights for the residential, commercial, tertiary and industrial segments. Electrification is gaining structural presence in supply and demand, although its pace continues to be conditioned by the economic signal from OPEX and energy taxation.

The macroeconomic environment has been moderately favourable in Spain, with GDP growth above the European average and a labour market that remains dynamic, although with signs of slowing down in some sectors. Monetary policy has entered a stabilisation phase after the tightening cycle, reducing financial pressure but not eliminating uncertainties.

The energy market remains a determining factor. The relationship between electricity and gas, together with the structure of charges and taxes, directly influences the competitiveness of technologies such as heat pumps compared to fossil fuel solutions. The European trend towards greater renewable penetration in electricity generation reinforces the systemic coherence of thermal electrification, but the final signal to the user depends on fiscal and regulatory design.

The geopolitical situation remains volatile, requiring caution in purchasing planning and cost risk management. Tariffs, trade defence instruments and adjustments to international material flows indirectly affect the supply chain, although without altering its structural functioning.

In construction and refurbishment, the market is showing mixed signals. New tertiary construction is losing momentum compared to previous years, while refurbishment and asset repositioning are gaining ground. Ventilation and indoor air quality continue to be underrepresented in certain refurbishment projects, despite their direct impact on health, comfort and efficiency.

Digitisation is advancing as an operational requirement rather than an accessory. Regulation and control, interoperability and operational verification are becoming established as requirements for transforming installed capacity into actual performance. The market is beginning to value measured performance and effective consumption reduction, not just technical specifications.

The aggregate growth recorded in AFEC's sell-in data in 2025 is 11.4%, accompanied by an internal recomposition of the market mix, which is evolving from a logic centred on equipment to one based on integration, operation and data.

Air conditioning, heat pump and hot water production equipment grew by 6.5% in 2025, following a period of readjustment in 2024 (not structural contraction), consolidating a trend marked by the increasing acceptance of aerothermal and geothermal energy as essential solutions. Growth was fairly similar across the residential, commercial and industrial segments.

The market for AHUs (air handling units) and heat recovery ventilation units remained virtually flat, with growth in value of 0.9%, as did that for air diffusion and distribution equipment. However, ventilation, both residential and industrial, and heat recovery units showed significant growth due to regulatory factors, strong demand from data centres, industrial operational requirements, etc.

In terms of regulation and control, European legislation is pushing decisively towards digitised buildings and facilities, but the actual adoption of advanced regulation and control systems remains uneven. The gap between regulatory requirements, technological potential and construction practice will determine energy, environmental and operational performance in the coming years, as well as the evolution of the BACS market.

Financing plays an important role in the transition. CAE mechanisms show potential for scalability in industry and the tertiary sector, while European programmes highlight the need to balance quality control, accessibility and administrative agility in order to maintain legitimacy.

2025 reflects a market with structural traction, albeit subject to pressures that require consistency between regulations, economic signals and technical execution. The difference between solid growth and fragile growth lies in closing gaps in talent, coordination and fiscal design.

Finally, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of consolidation. The heating and air conditioning sector is becoming increasingly important in Spain's socio-economic landscape. HVAC, BACS and CAI solutions are strategic infrastructure that supports economic activity, essential services and energy security in an increasingly demanding geopolitical, social, climatic and economic environment.

The full report is available on the AFEC website.

[Texto traducido con deepl.com]